Mission300 is Powering Africa Connecting 300 million People to Electricity by 2030. I think, we overheard the big picture, already. It is ambitious target both on magnitude, and time frame.

The World Bank Group has committed to connect 250 million people to electricity, while the African Development Bank will connect an additional 50 million as part of the mission 300.  

Other key players notably The Rockefeller Foundation, the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet and the United Nations’ Sustainable Energy for All initiative joined the mission.

We are yet to see local governments on board with reasonable matching commitment.

Given the transformative nature of the mission, I will shade some light how best Ethiopia can leverage the mission to electrify millions of people by 2030. By the way, 2030 is a target year for full electrification of Ethiopians [ NEP2.0].

I can see the momentum of mission300. It is building up. How Ethiopia can be a partner to see its fair share of light is the bigger question we all need to ask. And it very much applies to every respective country where mission300 targets.

A basic principle of one of the companies I used to work for [that stuck with me forever] has always been increasing the fertility of the company’s soil. Its purpose is to grow harvest and serve customers better.

Everyone needs to acknowledge that Ethiopian market is different from other markets, in many ways. Improving the market’s soil fertility in advance is the means to capture resources and reach those in need in time.

Preparation really counts.

Mobilizing financial resources is usually complex and time taking and time bound for expenditure. Whoever comes first, takes advantage of it. Remember, money flows where there is the least resistance. Development partners mobilize resources pushing boundaries and bureaucracies and local counterparts should be supporting their effort being on the driver’s sit together.

Electrification is a common goal but makes more sense for the local counterparts.

Despite the huge size of the world Bank resources in all forms[ expertise, financing scale, data, diversity of solutions and methodologies] there is always limitation with speed. The world Bank does not directly engage the private sector and initiatives usually takes ages. The World Bank financing has to go through its own and the counterpart government bureaucracy before it reaches the end users. This is where other supporting institutions play a big role. And sector government institutions should take prior preparations to stir projects and programs faster in to action.

The USD500 million ADELE project is a good example. The project was approved in 2021. The planned completion date of the project is 2027. Almost 4 years gone and 3 more years to go.

Among the project components of ADELE, the one the utility is in charge shows relatively good progress. In contrast, the third component that targets expansion of availability and affordability of solar home systems and off-grid solar (OGS) systems for households (HHs), small-holder farmers and small businesses in rural areas, with a particular focus on deep-rural and other underserved areas is just being started. It takes more than 3 years to reach here and I anticipate another whole year to see light on the users’ end.

Look, the financing is readily available, at least for the ADELE project targets. People [ ~60 million of us] needed power already. Institutions have not been catching up.

In fact, electrifications in rural and deep rural areas are the ones that need special attention and it is less complex to do it

This is where, I think, preparation counts for mission300 as well. To take advantage of the available resources in time and shine light on the dark..

At this stage, I am not personally in favor of allocating a significant chunk of the financing for capacity development. Capacity is there already. Previous programs [ Power Africa understanding series being notable in this] contributed in building capacity at all levels. And real capacity is built on implementation. Mission300 need to take this in to account if objectives are sufficiently met.  Focus on Projects, projects and projects.

Of course, every country is different. Every policy is different. One thing is universal and it is sustainability of projects, programs and initiatives.

For the off-grid communities, one business model is standing out from others. Service based business models.  Whether mission300 will capitalize on it or not, it is something we are going to see it forward.  Service based business models guarantee services and revenue continuity while relieving users from the burden of technical functionalities, and I think it can be modelled in Ethiopia too. More important is looking beyond light and charging while formulating the mission.

To be receptive for mission300 , I do suggest a couple of prior actions for the policy makers, regulators and sector players in Ethiopia.

• Reform the DRE subsector legal framework. It is a missing link in the policy circle and clearly a barrier for solar business expansion. Enable wheeling, grid injection and peer to peer selling of renewable KWHs. It will have an overflow effect to Mini-grid, SHS and small scale off-grid businesses.
• Capitalize on ADELE project experience. Identify and prepare potential private sector players for future use. No time should be wasted.
• Strengthen and work closely with industry associations to solicit timely inputs and channel resources whenever necessary,
• Commit local matching-resources including incentive mechanisms for rural and deep rural areas. Local commitments will attract attention. No one is interested to pour money where there is no interest.  
• Find a way to get the utility out of the mini-grid business. It will be a burden for the utility in the long term and a killer to the market overall.
• Engage more in the international arena. This is a very BIG gap among Ethiopian players. Make a noise. We have bigger challenges to address.

At this stage, I do not yet have the details how mission300 is finally going to work out, given it is just the beginning, and additional funding is being mobilized. But, with an equity mindset, and assuming a full cooperation from the government, we could see at least 30 million Ethiopians out of the dark with the announced mission300 alone.

 It is BIG, right? Yes, it is.  

The 2024 Off Grid Solar Market Trends Report stated that

In 2022, the number of people lacking access increased for the first time in 20 years, to 685 million people, globally. Nearly half of the population lacking access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be concentrated in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda,

Unsurprisingly, electricity access has become a huge battle.

More so, think of the damages during the conflict and forgone investments in Ethiopia over the last few years.. The number of people lacking access can really be significant in Ethiopia, and we all have a bigger catch up to make.

Mission300 is ambitious. If realized, millions will see light by 2030.  Yet, keep in mind that it targets only half of the problem we live in. Engaging more , reforming the sectors, preparing in time, capturing resources, learning from implementation and course correcting our actions is the way forward to realize the electrification ambitions, locally, and globally.